Trouble ahead for Turkey

Ukraine in flames, Egypt in the hands of the military. Why? Both former governments seem to have adopted the commonly held misconception among those new to democracy that when a government is elected it represents the people who elected it. In fact a Government has to represent the overall interests of the entire population. Ignoring these interests is the path to civil disorder.

In Egypt the Morsi government  choose to pursue a strongly partisan agenda by the imposition of an Islamist code yet only 52% of the electorate voted and of these only 51.7% voted for him. So with only 26.88% true supporters of his policies is it any wonder that it “ended”, as we say to children, “in tears”.

The situation with Yanukovych in the Ukraine is a little different in that it may have been in the best financial interests of the Ukraine to be close to Russian, but clearly a substantial part of the population disagreed, and given the history of the past 100 years, probably correctly so. Financially they may come to regret it but sometimes money alone is not enough.

Next to watch could well be Turkey where the conservative government of Abdullah Gül and Recep Erdoğan seems set on eroding the secular principles of the state as established by the founder of modern Turkey Kamal Ataturk. A lot of young Turks (there is a pun here but a bit obscure) and indeed some older ones, seem to disagree with him. We have already seen one protests, more could well follow, inspired by the recent events in the Ukraine and Egypt.

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